Could the Dow-to-Gold Ratio Ever Return to a Record 1 to 1 Ratio?

5:47 AM


July 15, 2016 --The big news out of Wall Street this week is that the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials each broke out to new record highs. But many think the bull market in stocks may be getting quite long in the tooth.

Now here's a thought-provoking way to look at the markets. If you measure things in terms of gold, the general stock market may already be in a bear market. The Dow Jones actually peaked last December when measured in gold. That's when the Dow-to-gold ratio hit a high of 17 to 1 -- and has since slid sharply. Year to date, the Dow is down 15% versus gold and down a whopping 27% versus silver.

The stock market rallied against gold this week to bring the Dow-to-gold ratio up near 14 to 1. But there is more potential downside for stocks in terms of precious metals in the months ahead. The Dow could drop more than 50% in gold terms to equal its 2011 low at 6 to 1, when gold prices peaked at more than $1,900 per ounce. From there, the ratio could still conceivably drop much further. Some of the most committed gold bugs out there believe the Dow-to-gold ratio could eventually return to a 1 to 1 ratio, an equilibrium last recorded when gold prices hit a secular top in January 1980.

Live prices at MoneyMetals.com show gold currently trading at $1,331.60 per ounce on the global market, and silver is coming in at $20.27.

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