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It is difficult to predict which presidential candidate will win. Polls and prediction markets continue to show Biden with the advantage, although the track record of pollsters has been poor in recent years.

 

Perhaps Wall Street is preparing for that outcome with a spate of selling. The stock market suffered one of the worst weeks ever leading up to an election.

 

Most people understand that polling is far from reliable and often conducted by biased media companies and partisan organizations. Even honest pollsters may not be getting the truth from voters about their intentions, or they have bad turnout models.

 

Political uncertainty will be the major driving force in markets until a victor has been declared.